CRA analysed Future Energy Scenarios by the UK’s ESO to build a picture of the future. Volume I – The Role of Low-Carbon Hydrogen.
Significant differences are observed in the kinds of molecules flowing through the system.
System Transformation
The 2050 net zero target is met with key changes in energy supply, minimally impacting consumers. Homeowners will adopt hydrogen boilers, maintain current heating systems, and choose between electric or fuel cell vehicles. Energy efficiency upgrades will be modest, offering limited system flexibility. Hydrogen demand will surge, predominantly produced from natural gas through carbon capture.
Falling Short
The 2050 net zero target is not achieved, with decarbonization making slower progress. Despite improvements in home insulation, there’s a continued heavy reliance on natural gas for heating. EV adoption increases at a slower pace, replacing petrol and diesel cars, but heavier vehicles like HGVs lag behind, still depending on diesel. Significant carbon emissions persist by 2050.
Sources and notes
Future Energy Scenarios, ESO 2023
ESO’s ‘System Transformation’, 1348 TWh x 2.6 of Electricity vs 2022
Consumer resistance to change prompts a reshuffling of the supply mix
Sources and notes
Future Energy Scenarios, ESO 2023 | CRA Analysis
Expressed in TWh (net calorific) | * Implies delivery of fuels in its original form to consumers for subsequent use in heat, power and certain non-energy uses | ** Net exports, unidentified sources, miscellaneous
ESO’s ‘Falling Short’, 1355 TWh x 2.0 of Electricity vs 2022
Net zero faces delays, with fossil fuels remaining central to the system
Sources and notes
Future Energy Scenarios, ESO 2023 | CRA Analysis
Expressed in TWh (net calorific) | * Implies delivery of fuels in its original form to consumers for subsequent use in heat, power and certain non-energy uses | ** Net exports, unidentified sources, miscellaneous
Key indicators to look out for in the H2 ramp-up
The Government supports hydrogen production from both electrolysis and natural gas reformation with CCUS, yet decisive action to drive the development is lagging.
Sources and Notes
Future Energy Scenarios, ESO 2023 | CRA Analysis
1 – The Second National Infrastructure Assessment, NIC, 2023
2 – Hydrogen Allocation Rounds, DESNZ, 2024
